TSA confiscated 3,000+ guns during the first six months of 2022
Washington DC August 15, 2022
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced that they found over 3,000 guns at airport security checkpoints during the first six months of 2022.
The rules regarding guns at airport security checkpoints are clear. Guns (as well as knives and other threat items considered risky) cannot be brought in carry-on bags through airport security checkpoints. They can, however, be stored (unloaded) and carried in locked, hard-sided containers in checked baggage, provided they are disclosed when checking-in for a flight.
The TSA posts highly visible signs at airports alerting air travelers that firearms and other weapons are prohibited at airport security checkpoints. Yet a record number of such items are being detected.
Security personnel at Indianapolis International Airport in 2020 stopped a man from carrying a loaded .45 caliber handgun and magazine onto an airplane. (Photo: Provided by TSA)
So should air travelers be concerned?
To answer this question requires a deeper look at how the TSA conducts airport security.
The TSA uses multiple layers to secure the air system, with detection at airport security checkpoint the most visible to air travelers.
The volume of guns detected elicits several questions. Every gun is attached to a traveler, which comes out to around 17 guns per day out of around 2 million people, or a detection rate of just over eight guns for every 1 million passengers screened, a relatively small number.
But this is the wrong ways to assess risk, since many travelers, such as children, do not own a firearm so they cannot bring a gun to a checkpoint.
This begs the question: What are the characteristics of those who bring a firearm to an airport security checkpoint? At the coarsest level, this can be broken down by gender, age, flying frequency, traveling alone or with others? The detection rate for each such group of people would be more useful and informative.
This information is critical to apply risk-based strategies to focus more attention on such people as they pass through airport security checkpoints.
Other questions to answer include, are there any repeat offenders among travelers who bring a gun to an airport security checkpoint? How many have been PreCheck vetted? Are any people found with a gun assessed to be bad actors with nefarious intent?
The recent Newark International Airport incident of a traveler trying to smuggle gun parts through airport security in exercise equipment is revealing. Given that there was clear intent to deceive, the traveler was questioned by law enforcement but was not arrested, suggesting that there was no nefarious intent.
What also remains unclear are the number of guns that pass through airport security checkpoints undetected. The likelihood that the TSA detects every gun brought to an airport security checkpoint is effectively zero.
The good news is that all such missed guns have not led to any incidents on airplanes, something that would be widely reported in the media.
So why does the TSA not work to detect every gun brought to a checkpoint point? The simple answer is that it would cost too much to achieve such an objective. Airport security checkpoints would slow down considerably and the number of TSA officers would need to be increased.
However, with 20 security layers in place, not all layers have to operate at 100% effectiveness. This means that the detection layer is performing adequately to prevent over 3,000 from getting onto airplanes. Many of the other layers are working to ensure that the air system remains safe for all travelers, even if some are carrying a firearm in their carry-on baggage.
The TSA’s mission is to “Protect the nation’s transportation systems to ensure freedom of movement for people and commerce.” To date, they are fulfilling their mission with multiple layers. Requiring any single layer to operate at 100% effectiveness would defeat the purpose of having multiple layers in place.
That fact that the TSA is detecting more guns at airport security checkpoint may be a surrogate for more people owning guns in the general population, which stood at around 390 million in 2018.
In an ideal world, no one would inadvertently carry a firearm with them when traveling by air. In the real world, mistakes are made, which has yet to compromise air security and lead to an air incident. This shows that the multiple security layers employed by the TSA are working.
